renewable energy building application), building electrification and power sector decarbonization, CCUs technology.
The completed construction area was the main driving factor of carbon emission in the production of building materials, reaching the peak of 4.2 billion square meters in 2014.
After that, it basically entered the platform stage.
It refers to the carbon emissions from building construction and building materials production, also known as building carbon emissions.
The average annual growth rate of carbon emission of building materials was 12% from 2000 to 2014, reaching 1.59 billion tons of CO2 in 2014.
Together with emissions from the construction industry, this proportion accounts for 38% of the total global energy related carbon dioxide emissions.
Under the benchmark scenario, China’s carbon emission during building operation will reach the peak in 2040, with a peak of about 2701 million tCO2, The peak time seriously lags behind China’s 2030 carbon emission peak target, and there will still be 1.5 billion tCO2 by 2060, which will seriously restrict the realization of China’s carbon neutralization target..
The production stage of building materials Change trend of carbon emission in the section (2) carbon emission in the construction stage.
And Different from the China Building Energy Consumption Research Report 2020, we calculate it here according to the completed buildings in that year.
Figure 2 change trend of carbon emission in the whole life cycle of buildings in China (1) Carbon emission in the production stage of building materials.
China’s construction life cycle carbon emission shows an overall growth trend, from about 1 billion tons of CO2 in 2000 to 3.758 billion tons in 2018, an increase of 3.76 times.
As shown in Figure 5.
The growth rate of carbon emission in the construction stage showed an inflection point in 2014, and the growth rate decreased significantly after 2014 (as shown in Figure 4).
At the beginning of the text, according to Su Yong, senior analyst of double carbon of CSCEC Political Research Institute, internationally, the carbon emission in the construction field accounts for more than one-third.
Based on this, five scenarios are set: benchmark scenario, energy saving scenario, capacity scenario, decarbonization scenario and neutralization scenario.
Fig.
It refers to the carbon emissions from fossil energy directly consumed in the operation stage of buildings, mainly from activities such as building cooking, hot water and decentralized heating.
Figure 6 carbon emission in building operation stage constitutes CCTC ® 033.
If this is taken as the peak target, we can reverse the control target of China’s total building energy consumption and carbon emission during the 14th Five Year Plan Period: by 2025, China’s total building carbon emission should be controlled at 2.5 billion tCO2, with an average annual growth rate of no more than 1.50%; The total building energy consumption should be controlled at 1.2 billion TCE, with an average annual growth rate of no more than 2.20%—— Cai Weiguang CCTC ® 011.
(3) building implied carbon emissions.
We found that under the energy-saving scenario, the carbon emission of building operation can reach the peak in 2030, with a peak of 2608 million tCO2.
(2) Indirect carbon emissions from buildings.
Our team divides building carbon emission reduction measures into four basic types: building energy conservation, Construction capacity (i.e.
According to the 2020 global construction status report, in 2019, the carbon dioxide emissions from construction operations reached about 10 billion tons, accounting for 28% of the total global energy related carbon dioxide emissions.
According to our calculations, In 2018, the carbon emission in the whole life cycle of buildings was 3.758 billion tCO2 (see Figure 1 for details), of which the carbon emission in the building materials production stage is 1.551 billion tCO2, the carbon emission in the building construction stage is 95 million tCO2, and the carbon emission in the building operation stage is 2.112 billion tCO2.
In the carbon emission in the building operation stage, the direct carbon emission in the building accounts for about 28%, the carbon emission in the electric power accounts for 50%, and the thermal carbon emission is 22%.
However, the growth rate slowed down significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 11.6% during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period and 2.15% after the 13th Five Year Plan period.
Therefore, we mainly carried out scenario simulation for carbon emission in building operation stage.
As shown in Figure 3.
Carbon emissions in the construction operation phase generally show an upward trend, but the growth rate has slowed significantly, with the average annual growth rate falling from 10.31% in the Tenth Five Year Plan period to 2.85% in the thirteenth Five Year Plan period.
Figure 1 China’s building life cycle carbon emission CCTC in 2018 ® 022.
2014 was a watershed in the change of carbon emission of building materials.
The sum of the first two items is the building operation carbon emission, and the sum of all three items can be called the building life cycle carbon emission.
Prospect of China’s construction carbon emissions peaking according to the previous data analysis, the carbon emissions in the construction stage have basically peaked, and the carbon emissions in construction and operation still show an increasing trend.
It refers to the carbon emissions from the two major secondary energy sources of electricity and heat consumed in the building operation stage, which is the main source of carbon emissions from building operation.
At present, the Ministry of ecology and environmental protection has issued the guidelines for the preparation of provincial carbon dioxide emission peak action plan It is based on this caliber to divide the industrial carbon emission boundary.
The change trend of China’s construction carbon emission is shown in Figure 2.
Among them, direct carbon emissions from buildings have basically entered the platform period, carbon emissions from building electricity have maintained a growth rate of 7% in recent years, and thermal carbon emissions have increased by about 3.5% in recent years.
There are some differences in the change trend characteristics of building carbon emission in different stages.
As long as we talk about the current situation of carbon emissions from buildings in China, we first need to define the measurement boundary of carbon emissions, According to the boundary, the carbon emissions from buildings can be divided into three categories: (1) direct carbon emissions from buildings.
5 change trend of carbon emission in construction operation stage from the perspective of carbon emission composition in construction operation stage, the proportion of direct carbon emission in construction decreased from 46.5% in 2000 to 28% in 2018; Carbon emissions from electricity increased from 33% to 45%; The proportion of thermal carbon emission remains between 22% – 25% (as shown in Figure 6).
Figure 4 change trend of energy consumption and carbon emission in the construction stage (3) Carbon emissions in the construction operation phase.
The scenario prediction results are shown in Figure 7.
(1) the sum of (2) and (1) is the carbon emissions from building operation.
