However, if there is no policy stimulus at the national level in 2022, the probability of PPP projects will still be in the stage of incremental reduction and stock digestion.
We cannot ignore the general background that the central economic work conference proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance.
Therefore, based on this, it can be determined that PPP will still usher in new development opportunities in 2022.
In order to prevent risks, since 2017, the Ministry of Finance and other departments have strengthened supervision, cleaned up a large number of non-conforming projects, and PPP has entered a period of standardized development.
For example, the government and social capital cooperation (PPP) projects with an investment scale of more than 16 trillion yuan still do not have a superior regulation, and the PPP regulations being formulated are not implemented as expected.
Combined with the data in 2021 and the cumulative data since 2014, the current PPP project is obviously in the stage of incremental reduction and digestion of stock.
How about PPP this year? According to the data of PPP project center, as of the end of November 2021 (the data of December has not been released), there are 595 new warehousing projects in the management database of national government and social capital cooperation (PPP) comprehensive information platform, with an investment of 1177.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 390.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.9%; 527 projects were signed and implemented, with an investment of 1210.3 billion yuan, an increase of 49.6 billion yuan or 4.3% year-on-year; 478 construction projects were started, with an investment of 890.2 billion yuan, an increase of 31.2 billion yuan or 3.6% year-on-year.
Because a major weakness of China’s current investment and financing system is that the construction of investment legal system lags behind.
In this case, where will PPP go in 2022? Will it continue to decline or rebound? Or disappear? Analysis on the trend of PPP in 2022.
Let’s take a look at the achievements of several central construction enterprises in the PPP field in 2021: according to the statistics of infrastructure communication, the eight central construction enterprises of CSCEC, China railway construction, China Railway, China power construction, China energy construction, China MCC and China Chemical won about 740 billion PPP projects in 2021, We can see the super combat effectiveness of the central construction enterprises.
Source: Xinji Jiantong and PPP Project Center Author: Sichuan PPP, as one of the important modes of infrastructure investment, attracts everyone’s attention every year.
Because PPP involves a wide range, it is difficult to coordinate many responsibilities and rights among ministries and commissions, such as the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the National Audit Office and various industry ministries and commissions.
Since 2014, there have been 10209 PPP warehousing projects with an investment of 16.1 trillion yuan; A total of 7618 projects have been signed and implemented, with an investment of 12.7 trillion yuan, and the signing and implementation rate is 78.8%; A total of 4748 projects have been started, with an investment of 7.5 trillion yuan and an operating rate of 46.6%.
This is also the current economic pressure and high hopes for PPP.
By industry, the top five investment in new warehousing projects are: transportation 643.7 billion yuan, municipal engineering 236.7 billion yuan, urban comprehensive development 75.9 billion yuan, ecological construction and environmental protection 47 billion yuan, and affordable housing projects 29.8 billion yuan.
As we all know, the PPP model has “savage growth” since 2014, and the number of projects and investment scale have increased sharply.
In 2022 and beyond, PPP mode, as a market-oriented means of local government investment and financing, will steadily become a normalized investment and financing tool.
The following is a list of some PPP projects won by several central construction enterprises in 2021..
This is also an important reason why the popularity of PPP has decreased.
By guiding social capital investment and stimulating the vitality of private investment, PPP mode has played an important role in helping to implement major national strategies, especially supporting infrastructure construction.
Although it is reduced by more than half compared with 180 billion in 2020, it can be seen from the amount and volume that central construction enterprises are still the main force in the PPP feast.
According to the data, the market heat of PPP projects decreased in 2021 compared with 2020.
Of course, there are reasons why PPP regulations have not come yet.
The reason for the sharp decline in PPP popularity.
It can be seen from the above that although the investment in new warehousing projects has decreased, the investment in contracted projects and construction projects has increased steadily.
With the completion of most PPP projects, it will gradually enter the operation payment stage at this stage.
From 2019, 2020 and 2021, local governments give priority to the government bond model (including general debt and special debt) in the choice of investment and financing model.
The eight central construction enterprises and PPP banquet talked about the macro direction.
In addition, another reason is that at present, the mainstream of local infrastructure projects is still to issue local government bonds for financing, and other financing modes coexist.
At present, there is an urgent need to introduce PPP regulations, unify the top-level system design, solve the problem of decentralized governance left over by history, systematically optimize the business environment, strengthen the protection of the rights and interests of all partners, and stabilize the development expectation.
Moreover, many previous relevant laws did not take into account the particularity of PPP, and the level of regulations is lower than that of laws, so it is difficult to solve the problems of relevant legal conflicts.
According to the data of PPP center of the Ministry of finance, from January to November 2021, the top five investment in new warehousing projects were: Guangxi 273.2 billion yuan, Chongqing 94.2 billion yuan, Guizhou 92.3 billion yuan, Sichuan 87.5 billion yuan and Gansu 69.3 billion yuan.
Although the draft of PPP regulations was issued in 2017, the formal regulations have not come yet, which is one of the reasons why the popularity of PPP decreased greatly in 2021.
