Real estate: more relaxed policies are urgently needed.
04.
We continue to recommend Longhu Group, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, Poly Development, Jindi Group, etc.
However, the current reality is still weak.
However, from the perspective of expectations, it can be fully predicted, that is, the real estate enterprises in danger can achieve integration by introducing war investment to ensure their own delivery, or achieve business recovery through debt restructuring.
At present, there are pilot cities, which need to be promoted in a wider range and with greater efforts..
Catalogue 01.
At present, the regulation of the second tier cities is still tighter than that at the beginning of 2016.
In this cycle, the supply side adopts the means of clearing rather than stimulating.
For specific analysis content (including risk tips, etc.), see the full report.
Risk tip: The government re opened the pre financing mode and followed the land finance mode, which accelerated the decline of market demand.
The growth rate fell back.
Click the audio to listen to the micro roadshow>>The above content is excerpted from the research report that Guotai Jun’an Securities has released that requires more lenient policies.
With the natural recovery of the market alone, it is difficult to reverse the current decline in fundamentals, and further policy support is still needed.
[Real estate] In the name of demand and policy, since the Central Economic Work Conference, the biggest divergence of real estate has shifted from whether to protect the main body to whether to improve the fundamentals.
The purchase restriction policy in Chongqing has been adjusted, and the self owned housing used for long-term rent may not be included in the number of units.
According to the performance of the statistics bureau, the performance in November was below the low base, and the year-on-year data was even worse than that in October, indicating that the level of fundamental recovery still needs further observation.
Micro roadshows: more relaxed policies are urgently needed.
According to the report of the Associated Press of Finance, the off island purchase restriction policy of Xiamen has been adjusted to limit the purchase of one house off the island for families and individuals who do not have registered residence in Xiamen but actually work and live in Xiamen.
The current market sales are still in a weak state, so the market has a strong expectation of favorable policies on the demand side.
07.
China Construction/Zhite New Materials are recommended.
Therefore, on the demand side, strong policies far stronger than those in previous policy cycles are needed to achieve effective demand improvement.
Among the top 20, Poly Development, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Green City China and Jianfa Real Estate still maintained positive year-on-year growth.
In December, the sales of real estate enterprises fell back, and private enterprises, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises turned negative in an all-round way.
The description of real estate at the Central Economic Work Conference in December also put support for improving housing demand at the level of expanding domestic demand.
It is expected that the stimulus policy will be gradually introduced and implemented at the same time of risk prevention and delivery.
05.
are all powerful tools of demand policies.
It is worth noting that in December 2022, the sales of the top 10 real estate enterprises among the top 50 real estate enterprises improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7 pcts up to – 7.4% compared with October.
Although many cities have introduced loose policies since December, there is still much room for the second tier cities to relax their administrative regulation.
Since December, a number of cities have introduced demand side easing policies, but more policies need to be observed in the first quarter of 2023.
Home appliances: easing entry and exit is expected to stimulate offline consumption and exports.
03.
Construction: real estate policies are expected to exceed expectations.
The growth rate of central enterprises dropped 19.5 pcts from November to – 2.3%.
Real estate: in the name of demand and under the number of policy.
At the same time, some small players and new players are also struggling to improve their products to benefit from the target CCCC Real Estate, China Construction Development Co., Ltd., etc.
Interest rate cuts, housing subsidies, government buy backs, etc.
02.
At present, the focus of the industry has shifted from the supply side risk to the demand side stimulus policy.
Under the framework of “housing does not stir”, the market expects a wider range of easing policies.
From the perspective of real estate enterprise fundamentals, as the market clearing comes to an end and the land acquisition layout is adjusted in 2022, the core competitiveness in 2023 is to have both credit and product strength.
Micro roadshows: real estate policies are expected to exceed expectations, Recommend CSCEC/Zhite New Materials and other [real estate] urgently need more relaxed policies.
Among them, the sales growth rate of private enterprises dropped by 3.4 pcts compared with that in November to -49.1%.
With the introduction of a number of financing policies for real estate enterprises and the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, the supply side risks of real estate enterprises have basically dissipated, and the focus of the market has shifted to the recovery rhythm of the demand side and the introduction rhythm of stimulus policies.
Hangzhou Provident Fund implemented the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans”, and the down payment ratio of second set of housing decreased to 40%.
In December 2022, the top 50 real estate enterprises achieved sales of 455.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%, down 4.4 pcts from November.
Real estate: the credit direction is the price direction.
This cycle has taken a completely different approach from previous cycles, and the demand side policy needs to be much higher than previous cycles.
In the past, when the new cycle was started, it was not simply through the demand side, but more through the restart of shadow banking and other ways to inject macro liquidity into high-risk real estate enterprises, and then through the credit derivative ability of land, to achieve the expectation of asset price rise and drive the restoration of demand confidence.
At present, the plate market driven by policy expectations continues to ferment, and the fundamental recovery will still move backward.
With the improvement of guarantee delivery and financing environment, the focus of the market now returns to the demand side.
06.
The growth rate of state-owned enterprises dropped 2.2 pcts from November to – 7.8%.
From the perspective of the supply side clearing stage, in terms of the absolute scale of the balance sheet and the asset liability ratio, it does not show that the supply side clearing has ended.
The relatively vague expectation lies in the judgment of demand.