Weekly view of other building materials and cement: Last week, the cement price showed a strong trend, and it is expected that the price will continue to rise this week.
This week, the rainy weather in the South China market continues, coupled with the continuous impact of low-cost cement from outside, and the cement price may fall.
Currently, demand is still mainly concentrated on infrastructure projects.
Weekly View of Construction Steel: There is an expected increase in circulating resources, but there are still downstream funding issues.
Analysis of Construction Material Market (I) Steel 1.
Due to the weather impact, the demand increase for cement concrete has slowed down.
Currently, medium and heavy plates continue to be removed from stock, and some businesses have experienced a shortage of specifications.
From a regional perspective, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region performed well, with significant differentiation in East China.
In terms of output outlook for this week, short process steel mills currently maintain normal production, while long process steel mills have no signs of improving profits.
At the same time, the early winter storage resources of steel mills were facing cash pressure, and the increase in market circulation resources would suppress the short-term price rebound.
Some rolling lines were shut down for maintenance; In terms of inventory, the total inventory of deformed steel bars was 10.8625 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 310200 tons.
It is expected that there will be a correction in the rebar price this week.
1、 Construction Material Price Market II.
Currently, there are relatively tight downstream funding issues, and there has been a wave of concentrated procurement volume last week, and there may be a slowdown in late procurement.
Logical Analysis of Operation of Deformed Steel Bars Last week, the price of deformed steel bars increased slightly.
Weekly view of concrete: Last week, the price of concrete was stable, and it is expected that the price of this week will fluctuate and stabilize.
Due to the impact of rain and weather on the main East and South China markets, the cement market demand has declined, coupled with the impact of low-cost cement from outside, many manufacturers have taken a wait-and-see attitude.
It is expected that there will be little change in the production level of deformed steel this week; In terms of inventory, last week, inventory removal slightly expanded on a month-on-month basis.
In the construction industry, there may be a significant increase in the procurement volume of late construction projects, and there should be a more significant increase in new construction projects.
The cost of receiving orders from circulation merchants remains high, and the enthusiasm for short-term orders is poor; In terms of demand, the consumption of medium and heavy plates last week decreased by 12800 tons compared to last week.
According to data from Centennial Construction Network, as of March 28, the average price of Centennial Construction P.O42.5 bulk cement was 465 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.96%, and a weekly increase of 0.43%.
In addition, the MLF excess of 281 billion yuan in the middle of the month will be renewed, and the momentum for economic recovery will be sufficient under the release of liquidity; In terms of supply, last week’s production of deformed steel was 3021900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21700 tons, with a slight increase in supply.
Last week, the logical analysis of cement operation will enter late March, and the national cement market will maintain an upward trend.
On the macro level, last week, the central bank’s reserve requirement reduction was officially implemented, and it is expected to release 600 billion yuan of medium – and long-term funds.
However, a large number of early infrastructure projects may lead to dilution of project funds, and late infrastructure projects may have financial risks that inhibit project progress.
This week, the weather impact or weakening in East China has led to a trend of prices continuing to rise with the recovery in demand.
Core Viewpoint Fundamentals: Last week, the overall trend of building materials was upward.
Therefore, although there is elasticity in supply, there is not a strong willingness to actively increase production.
The rainy weather in the East China market is basically over, and the market is expected to recover, while the rest of the market may continue to rise.
The circulation of resources for screw steel or the suppression of steel prices may lead to a correction in steel prices.
On the supply side, the output of the steel plant increased slightly last week, increasing by 7300 tons, resulting in continued enthusiasm for production and high raw material costs; In terms of circulation, last week, the number of factory warehouses added to the stock market decreased by 58600 tons, mainly reflected in the digestion of the stock market.
In addition to the impact of external low-cost cement, market competition pressure has intensified, and the rise of the national cement market has further slowed down.
However, due to poor downstream demand, the turnover of medium and heavy plates did not significantly improve on a month-on-month basis, and the trading performance of medium and heavy plates throughout the week was average.
From a regional perspective, although inventory removal in the Beijing and Tianjin regions is currently good, the overall pressure on steel mills in Shanxi and Southwest regions is relatively high, and the inventory reduction trend may continue this week; In terms of consumption, currently, demand is mainly concentrated in infrastructure projects, while consumption of real estate projects shows no signs of improvement.
Demand is still expected.
It can be expected that consumption will decrease slightly this week; Overall, over the weekend, there was a slight rebound in the futures price of rebar, but the dynamics of spot price tracking were insufficient, and the downstream funding problem was tight.
It is expected that the price of deformed steel bars will be subject to a correction last week.
Weekly view of medium and heavy plates: The risk of cost downward movement is still present, and the price of medium and heavy plates weakened under pressure.
Currently, there is insufficient momentum for the continued increase in steel varieties, and the market mentality is biased towards caution.
The main market demand performance is average, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has increased.
Logic analysis of the operation of medium and heavy plates last week: The market for medium and heavy plates has experienced strong shocks this week.
Logic analysis of last week’s concrete operation As of March 31, the average price of C30 concrete nationwide was 409 yuan/square meter, which was flat on a weekly basis.
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Looking ahead to the end of March this week, the national cement market as a whole has maintained an upward trend, but the upward trend has slowed significantly.
Long-process steel mills experienced a reduction in profits, and their enthusiasm for increasing production was not high.
Downstream consumption showed signs of slowing down, and the enthusiasm for ordering in the middle and lower reaches was not high; In terms of demand, the apparent consumption of rebar increased slightly last week.
In terms of supply outlook this week, there is no new maintenance or resumption of production in the short term, and it is expected that the performance of supply this week is not expected to change much; In terms of circulation, the social inventory of merchants continues to decline, and due to the high ordering costs, the willingness to receive orders in the short term is not strong, and the arrival of resources may slow down; In terms of demand, the current demand is unstable, low price resources are acceptable, while high price resources are not smoothly traded; In summary, the risk of short-term market cost downward movement still exists, and the prices of medium and heavy plates may weaken under pressure.
Driven by the upward trend of market volatility, the market sentiment improved slightly throughout the week.
In addition to the decrease in rainfall in the south, a small amount of speculative transactions have driven the outflow of resources.
