Market analysis of building materials (I) steel 1.
In the short term, the market is still in a volatile market, and the macro favorable market may gradually improve during the rush period.
This week, it is expected that the temperature drop will be favorable for construction after September, and the overall market demand will continue to increase with the stimulation of many favorable policies.
However, due to the high growth rate of supply, the market is worried that the “golden nine” may be difficult to appear, and the market sentiment is pessimistic.
It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of rebar will adjust the operation logic of building steel last week.
In terms of circulation, the weak performance of demand relative to inventory has led to pressure on traders’ capital operation, weak spot quotations, and frequent drops in market resources.
In the absence of too much new production capacity, supply pressure may ease in the later stage.
In the short term, the demand of the construction industry is improving month on month.
In some areas, the market has stagnated due to the impact of the epidemic closure.
Weekly view of building steel: the logic of cost support is gradually obvious.
It is expected that the overall building materials varieties will continue to operate in a volatile manner this week.
As of September 2, the cement price index of Centennial construction network was 453.27 points, up 0.51% week on week.
In terms of supply, last week’s output continued to increase to 2.9381 million tons, with a month on month increase of 243500 tons.
Weekly view of the medium and heavy plate: the demand is expected to be released, and the medium and heavy plate may rise slightly.
The current trend of building materials is weak.
The social inventory in Northeast and East China is in good condition, and the overall decline in the southwest is significantly narrowed due to the impact of the epidemic.
In the short term, the demand of the construction industry is in a state of improvement compared with the previous month.
Among them, due to the recent centralized resumption of production of steel mills, the inventory pressure of steel mills has partially rebounded.
Logic analysis of the operation of the medium and heavy plate last week shows that the national average price of the medium and heavy plate fell weakly last week.
In terms of supply and inventory, the output continues to decline slightly, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills have begun to decline, and the enthusiasm for production has been reduced.
At present, the supply and demand fundamentals continue to deviate, the market’s expectations of “Jinjiu” are poor, and the sentiment is pessimistic.
It is expected that the output of screw thread steel will continue to increase in the short term, but the growth rate will slow down as a whole, and the space for increasing production in the later period is relatively limited; In terms of inventory, the inventory is near the inflection point, and the market is worried that there will be a situation of accumulation in the peak season.
Off peak production has been ended in many places, production capacity has increased, supply and demand continue to play games, and the national cement price has fluctuated.
In the short term, it is still necessary to observe the demand recovery in September.
Analysis of the weakening operation of rebar price last week.
（2） Other building materials 1.
Weekly view of cement: last week’s cement price rose and fell, and it is expected that this week’s price will fluctuate.
At the same time, the impact of power limitation in the southwest ended, and the output rebounded much faster than expected; In terms of inventory, last week’s total inventory was 7.1731 million tons, a month on month decrease of 41000 tons.
In the short term, the market is still in a volatile market, and the market may gradually improve.
However, due to the tepid performance of the real estate infrastructure market under the general background, the steel consumption has recovered but is not as good as expected.
The market is doubtful about incremental consumption.
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However, the overall situation is still in the stage of destocking; In terms of demand, consumption has picked up slightly month on month, but the difference between supply and demand has narrowed significantly.
Except for some regions with meager profits, other regions have suffered serious losses, and the short process has been in a state of shutdown.
Last week’s cement operation logic analysis showed that cement prices in many parts of the country rose and fell, and the market was stable and fluctuating.
In terms of demand, the market transaction performance was not as good as expected, and the downstream demand was relatively weak.
Although the power consumption has returned to the normal level and the downstream operation situation has improved, the logistics turnover is still low, and the terminal purchase volume has not been improved, which has also greatly inhibited the inventory decontamination, and the recovery of demand still needs time.
In terms of demand, after the off-season, the demand release in September can still be expected.
According to demand analysis, from August 23 to August 29, cement enterprises delivered 8.2225 million tons of goods, up 4.75% month on month, and continued to make up after last week’s rebound.
Many places ended off peak production, supply improved, supply and demand continued to play games, and the market was volatile..
In the construction industry, the temperature drop after September is conducive to construction.
In terms of supply outlook this week, there is news of crude steel reduction in the second half of the year, but it has a small impact on medium plate varieties.
However, from the perspective of cost and price, the current spot price is again approaching the cost of steel mills, and the cost may have some support for the price.
In terms of output outlook this week, the speed of resumption of production of steel mills is far higher than expected, which makes the market worried about the pressure after the recovery of supply.
However, due to the recent price loosening, the volume of transactions has significantly shrunk.
In terms of supply, the national cement clinker capacity utilization rate was 62.47%, an increase of 14.73% over last week.
The steel structure industry is mainly based on order procurement and is expected to perform steadily in September.
In terms of the market, the traditional peak season of “gold, nine, silver and ten” has boosted the mentality of traders to a certain extent, and the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks has increased.
Most of the transactions were focused on just needed purchases.
2.
In general, the current market expectation of “slack season” has led to an overall decline in prices.
However, real estate has suffered setbacks.
Last week’s high temperature has passed, and cement demand has been supplemented to a certain extent.
At present, the market is still in the stage of demand recovery, and there are still no obvious signs of downstream acceleration.
However, considering the influence of seasonal factors and logistics factors, it is expected that the trend of destocking will continue in the short term, and the overall rate of destocking will obviously slow down; In terms of demand, the temperature drop after September is conducive to construction.
It is expected that the price will still maintain range shock adjustment this week.
In general, it is expected that the price of the medium board market will be under pressure this week.
1、 Price of Building Materials II.
In terms of cost and profit, as of September 2, the price difference between cement and coal was 300 yuan / ton, down 14.9% from 2021.
In terms of inventory, the national cement clinker storage capacity ratio was 64.7%, a slight decrease of 1.78% compared with last week.
In addition, due to the impact of capital, the epidemic and other factors, demand has not increased explosively.
Recently, the steel price has fallen sharply, and some steel enterprises have chosen to overhaul due to the squeeze of profits.
The rolling lines overhauled at the early stage in many provinces concentrated on resuming production.
